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COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSIS

Vote Swing Simulator

Transfer a selected percentage of one party's constituency-level votes to another party. PMAC recalculates party totals, seat winners and margins without changing the stored official results.

ElectionMove votes fromMove votes toTransfer percentage

This is a mathematical counterfactual, not a prediction. It assumes the selected percentage moves uniformly in every constituency where the source party has votes.

Seats processed540Constituencies with results

Transfer5.0%AACP → AAAP

Votes moved58Across all seats

Seats flipped0Winner changed

Source partyAACPAACP

Recipient partyAAAPAAAP

SEAT IMPACT

Before and after simulation

Election intelligence →

BJPBharatiya Janata Party

Official239

Simulated239

INCIndian National Congress

Official99

Simulated99

SPSamajwadi Party

Official36

Simulated36

AITCAll India Trinamool Congress

Official29

Simulated29

DMKDravida Munnetra Kazhagam

Official22

Simulated22

TDPTelugu Desam Party

Official16

Simulated16

JD(U)Janata Dal (United)

Official12

Simulated12

SHSUBTShiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray)

Official9

Simulated9

NCPSPNationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar)

Official8

Simulated8

INDIndependent

Official7

Simulated7

SHSShiv Sena

Official6

Simulated6

LJPRVLJPRV

Official5

Simulated5

YSRCPYuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party

Official4

Simulated4

CPI(M)Communist Party of India (Marxist)

Official4

Simulated4

RJDRashtriya Janata Dal

Official4

Simulated4

JMMJharkhand Mukti Morcha

Official3

Simulated3

AAAPAAAP

Official3

Simulated3

IUMLIndian Union Muslim League

Official3

Simulated3

JKNJKN

Official2

Simulated2

RLDRashtriya Lok Dal

Official2

Simulated2

JNPJana Sena Party

Official2

Simulated2

VCKViduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi

Official2

Simulated2

CPICommunist Party of India

Official2

Simulated2

JD(S)JD(S)

Official2

Simulated2

CPI(ML)(L)Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation

Official2

Simulated2

UPPLUPPL

Official1

Simulated1

ZPMZPM

Official1

Simulated1

VOTPPVOTPP

Official1

Simulated1

SKMSKM

Official1

Simulated1

AGPAGP

Official1

Simulated1

ASPKRASPKR

Official1

Simulated1

AJSUPAJSUP

Official1

Simulated1

AIMIMAll India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen

Official1

Simulated1

SADSAD

Official1

Simulated1

KECKEC

Official1

Simulated1

RLTPRLTP

Official1

Simulated1

RSPRSP

Official1

Simulated1

BHRTADVSIPBHRTADVSIP

Official1

Simulated1

MDMKMDMK

Official1

Simulated1

NCPNationalist Congress Party

Official1

Simulated1

HAMSHAMS

Official1

Simulated1

ADALADAL

Official1

Simulated1

FLIPPED CONSTITUENCIES

0 winner changes

No seats changed winner

Try a larger transfer percentage or a different party pair.